In a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, perspective is critical to overcoming challenge; seeing things from all sides gives you the confidence that with any change comes opportunity.
- Against a backdrop of geopolitical shifts, energy market disruption, AI transformation and an incremental Federal Budget, ‘Perspective on Advice 2026’ provided advisers with insights to help them reframe global uncertainty as local opportunity.
- Leveraging Macquarie’s global relationships, the event shared unique perspectives from global leaders in investment and technology on what's changing in the world and what it means for advisers as they navigate a complex world.
Part 1: Zooming out – adapting to a changing geopolitical backdrop
Shemara Wikramanayake, Managing Director and CEO of Macquarie Group, speaks with Craig Griffin, Chief Marketing Officer and Head of Employee Experience, Banking and Financial Services.
Opening the event, Macquarie Group CEO Shemara Wikramanayake provided a timely reminder that the world is constantly changing and that despite the increasing pace of that change, global economies and markets have remained resilient. Australia is well positioned to respond to continued change, not simply today but over the medium term, she added.
Echoing the perspective theme, Shemara shared that during times of previous uncertainty, remaining agile and being open to pivoting and finding opportunities had served her and Macquarie well. In sharing her approach with the audience, she advised, “Reach out to get a breadth of perspectives that will allow you to identify opportunities from challenge” and then “empower yourself and your people to pursue them.”
Beyond the short-term challenges that businesses face, Shemara highlighted four megatrends underpinning long-term growth and contributing to Macquarie’s investment focus: demographics, digitisation, decarbonisation, deglobalisation.
Demographics
Changes to populations globally, like rising middle classes, aging populations and a subsequent increase in savings are driving need in housing, logistics and social infrastructure like healthcare.
Digitalisation
The world is using, creating, storing and moving data around more than ever before, which, together with the rise of AI, is creating growing demand for digital infrastructure.
Decarbonisation
Energy supply is evolving quickly as countries and companies generate new demand and look to balance energy security, global competitiveness and climate goals, requiring investment across energy systems.
Deglobalisation
An increasing focus on national resiliency and sovereign resilience is driving investment in areas such as logistics infrastructure, supply chains, defence, and communications networks.
Subsequent sessions went on to explore the effect of the current volatility – a period of “layered, persistent uncertainty,” as John Studzinski CBE, Vice Chairman of PIMCO, put it – and the extent to which it challenges advisers making investment decisions and providing advice to clients.
Advisers need to “look closely at the traditional parameters used to make investment decisions and how suitable they remain in today’s climate – especially relative valuations,” added Studzinski, and the split of active vs passive investments in a portfolio during times of volatility.
Ric Deverell, Chief Economist at Macquarie grounded the discussion in data and provided a further reminder that current volatility is not unprecedented and geopolitical events rarely have a sustained impact on the global economy.
While there are obvious risks, he said, global growth has remained relatively resilient (in part because AI-related spending is offsetting a pull-back in other sectors), oil prices remain well below previous real highs, global bond yields have normalised, and equity prices continue to rally.
Source: Caldara & Iacoviello, Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy
The AI investment boom has provided a tailwind for equity markets, with any sign that the expected economy wide productivity benefits are arriving potentially pushing the main indices yet higher. While there is a risk that prices are moving above those justified by the fundamentals, we are yet to see the euphoria associated with the peak of the late 1990s tech bubble. Nonetheless, investors need to remain disciplined and stay focused on fundamental profitability.
Source: IMF, Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy
Broader discussion on the efficiencies being driven by AI provided a reminder that it’s likely too early in the J-curve to be seeing broad-based productivity gains, and that investment in AI should be done with a clear idea of how it can enhance the top – rather than bottom – line.
Following Ric’s update, the conversation turned to the role of private credit in portfolios, which can provide a diversification from traditional stocks but needs to be appropriately sized given its inherent illiquidity.
The discussion centred around the need for advisers to be transparent with clients and understand how much liquidity risk a client is willing to take for the potential return upside, including scenario planning possible future withdrawal needs.
Equity market investments remain an important part of asset allocation, acting as a counterbalance to fixed income assets in a portfolio and ensuring a yield/equity split,” commented Marc Nachmann, Global Head of Asset & Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs. “With equities, it’s important to look through external events and retain a medium-to-long-term perspective.”
New areas of interesting opportunity were also the subject of discussion.
In periods of intense geopolitical rivalry, everything that can, gets weaponised,” commented Vance Serchuk, KKR Partner and Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute, and "shifts in the geopolitical landscape are giving rise to new capital needs.”
As countries build up everything from supply chains to energy systems, defence infrastructure and communications networks, to reduce their dependence on other nations, sessions spoke to a new investment frontier emerging.
Investing in these areas can therefore be a positive social good, but investors need to understand the nuances of individual opportunities,” added Serchuk. “Start by identifying what broad themes might be right for your client and then examine the details of individual opportunities.”
“Everything comes down to the micro of the detail,” concluded Serchuk, which provided a fitting summary of the first part of the day: there will always be setbacks and challenging periods, so understand the context as it relates to you and your clients, focus on controlling the controllable, and consider how change can be viewed as an opportunity.
Part two of the three-part series will focus on the critical role of technology and AI in modernising advice and financial services firms, explore the digital roadmap and investment Macquarie is making in its Wrap platform and Adviser Online, and look at how advisers can integrate new technologies into their daily practices.
Part three will provide actionable insights on scaling a financial advice business and how to address the common challenges advisers face when trying to scale sustainably, including by sharing key strategies and practical learnings from a successful growth firm and providing insights from our proprietary benchmarking data.